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Os mercados têm rosto

Segunda-feira, 28.01.13

 

“O país aguenta mais austeridade?... Ai aguenta, aguenta.

Lembramo-nos desta resposta repugnante de Fernando Ulrich, Presidente do BPI. E na realidade: Temos de aguentar aumentos de impostos, novas SCUTs, cortes na saúde e educação, temos de aguentar o fim dos subsídios de férias e de Natal.

E para quê?

Em grande medida, para pagar juros usurários que os mercados nos têm cobrado. De acordo com a Direção Geral do Orçamento, em 2012, o custo com os juros aumentou 13,9% face a 2011!

Em 2012, Portugal gastou 6,9 Mil milhões de Euros só para pagar juros. Um valor que em 2011 tinha ficado à volta dos 6 Mil Milhões de Euros.

E os mercados têm rostos, nomes, contas bancárias que engordam, lucros que disparam:

 

Ganhos com dívida portuguesa terão levado BPI a atingir lucros 233 milhões em 2012

BPI aumentou a exposição à dívida portuguesa, mas as operações de venda de obrigações realizadas no quarto trimestre terão gerado ganhos de 125 milhões de euros, de acordo com as previsões do CaixaBI.

Autoria e outros dados (tags, etc)

por sitiocomvistasobreacidade às 22:23

Mexia e Catroga não dão à luz

Sábado, 26.01.13


Uma empresa privada, logo eficiente e competente, gerida pelos melhores e mais bem pagos gestores do país, como Mexia e Catroga, não consegue fazer aquilo para que foi criada: dar à luz!

Empresas e famílias de Pombal sem eletricidade há sete dias

E se a EDP ainda fosse pública: Que diriam as vozes anti-Estado, que pululam nas TVs, se a empresa pública não conseguisse repor a eletricidade em diversas localidades durante 7 dias? Quantos artigos já teria escrito Camilo Lourenço contra a ineficácia e incompetência da gestão pública? Quantas comissões de inquérito já o deputado do PSD Carlos Abreu Amorim teria exigido para que se descobrissem os responsáveis por mais este falhanço de uma empresa pública?

O que nos vale é que a empresa foi privatizada, está cotada em bolsa, e os principais gestores da EDP tiveram o Amém da São Caetano à Lapa e assim sendo perante a escuridão em Pombal e noutros concelhos, temos um enorme silêncio e encolher de ombros. Como é privado, tudo é normal e ninguém tem de dar explicações a ninguém.

 

 


Autoria e outros dados (tags, etc)

por sitiocomvistasobreacidade às 11:28

Notas sobre os contas de 2012: Na desgraça, sai a vitória para o Governo.

Quinta-feira, 24.01.13

A troika tinha estimado que o PIB de 2012 ficaria nos 180.000 Milhões de Euros e dizia que o défice não poderia ser maior que 5% desse montante: os tais 9028 milhões (limite nominal establecido pela Troika para o défice). Ficámos abaixo desse montante, certo, mas o défice em termos percentuais não deixará de andar à volta dos 5%, mas como o PIB ficou abaixo de esperado (cerca de 166.000 Milhões de Euros), 5% disso dará 8.300 Milhões de Euros (O défice do Estado ficou nos 8328,8 milhões de euros). Esta lógica foi explicada aqui.

Claro que os 5% foram atingidos com receitas extraordinárias: receitas do 4G e venda do Aeroporto. Mas para inglês e povo verem, isso agora não interessa nada.

Fiquei contente que tenha havido (tal como o ano passado) um superavit no saldo primário (sem juros), o que significa q o Estado Social é sustentável, o que não é sustentável são os juros.

Num ano em que o PIB baixou 3%, noto que as receitas do IRC tenham descido 17,9%!!! Poderão existir algumas regras contabilísticas que justifiquem esta redução brutal das receitas do IRC, mas parece-me que a eficiência fiscal (leia-se evasão fiscal) das nossas empresas está de parabéns!

Autoria e outros dados (tags, etc)

por sitiocomvistasobreacidade às 12:05

BPN, Copacabana Palace, o perdão às evasões fiscais

Terça-feira, 22.01.13

Ana Gomes no Conselho Superior da Antena 1. BPN, Copacabana Palace, o fechar de olhos às fugas fiscais de Ricardo Salgado, entre outros temas. Massacrar o povo para salvar o rico não é uma inevitabilidade, é uma opção política. A não perder e ouvir aqui.

Autoria e outros dados (tags, etc)

por sitiocomvistasobreacidade às 13:22

Porque é que as desigualdades sociais obstaculizam a recuperação económica

Segunda-feira, 21.01.13

Inequality Is Holding Back the Recovery, Texto de Joseph Stiglitz . 19 de Janeiro 2013

 

Realço alguns excertos:

 

"When even the free-market-oriented magazine The Economist argues — as it did in a special feature in October — that the magnitude and nature of the country’s inequality represent a serious threat to America, we should know that something has gone horribly wrong. And yet, after four decades of widening inequality and the greatest economic downturn since the Depression, we haven’t done anything about it."

There are four major reasons inequality is squelching our recovery. The most immediate is that our middle class is too weak to support the consumer spending that has historically driven our economic growth. While the top 1 percent of income earners took home 93 percent of the growth in incomes in 2010, the households in the middle — who are most likely to spend their incomes rather than save them and who are, in a sense, the true job creators — have lower household incomes, adjusted for inflation, than they did in 1996.(...)
Second, the hollowing out of the middle class since the 1970s, a phenomenon interrupted only briefly in the 1990s, means that they are unable to invest in their future, by educating themselves and their children and by starting or improving businesses.
Third, the weakness of the middle class is holding back tax receipts, especially because those at the top are so adroit in avoiding taxes and in getting Washington to give them tax breaks. (...) Returns from Wall Street speculation are taxed at a far lower rate than other forms of income. Low tax receipts mean that the government cannot make the vital investments in infrastructure, education, research and health that are crucial for restoring long-term economic strength.
Fourth, inequality is associated with more frequent and more severe boom-and-bust cycles that make our economy more volatile and vulnerable.
(...)

There are all kinds of excuses for inequality. Some say it’s beyond our control, pointing to market forces like globalization, trade liberalization, the technological revolution, the “rise of the rest.” Others assert that doing anything about it would make us all worse off, by stifling our already sputtering economic engine. These are self-serving, ignorant falsehoods.

Market forces don’t exist in a vacuum — we shape them. Other countries, like fast-growing Brazil, have shaped them in ways that have lowered inequality while creating more opportunity and higher growth. Countries far poorer than ours have decided that all young people should have access to food, education and health care so they can fulfill their aspirations.

(...)

Globalization, and the unbalanced way it has been pursued, has shifted bargaining power away from workers: firms can threaten to move elsewhere, especially when tax laws treat such overseas investments so favorably. This in turn has weakened unions, and though unions have sometimes been a source of rigidity, the countries that responded most effectively to the global financial crisis, like Germany and Sweden, have strong unions and strong systems of social protection.

As Mr. Obama’s second term begins, we must all face the fact that our country cannot quickly, meaningfully recover without policies that directly address inequality. What’s needed is a comprehensive response that should include, at least, significant investments in education, a more progressive tax system and a tax on financial speculation.

The good news is that our thinking has been reframed: it used to be that we asked how much growth we would be willing to sacrifice for a little more equality and opportunity. Now we realize that we are paying a high price for our inequality and that alleviating it and promoting growth are intertwined, complementary goals. It will be up to all of us — our leaders included — to muster the courage and foresight to finally treat this beleaguering malady.


Autoria e outros dados (tags, etc)

por sitiocomvistasobreacidade às 23:27

Capitalistas unidos

Sábado, 19.01.13

A semana nao foi fácil para a família Espírtio Santo:

José Maria Ricciardi constituído arguido após queixa da CMVM

Ricardo Salgado esqueceu-se de declarar 8,5 milhões de euros ao fisco

 

Vai daí o Jornal de Balsemão não hesita em dar a Ricardo Salgado uma tribuna priveligiada para limpar a face. A amizade entre vizinhos da Quinta da Marinha é bonita, não é? Os capitalistas unidos jamais serão vencidos?

Autoria e outros dados (tags, etc)

por sitiocomvistasobreacidade às 11:15

Actualização das previsões (8)

Quinta-feira, 17.01.13

Conforme ontem prometido, publico agora um quadrinho com as sucessivas previsões sobre o PIB, défice e desemprego.

Esta nova versão do quadro apresenta os novos dados apresentados pelo Banco de Portugal, a 15 de Janeiro de 2013, e que revêem a previsão da crescimento do PIB para este ano para -1,9%. O orçamento do Estado previa que esse mesmo crescimento se fique nos -1% (a aqui está mais um desvio colossal, portanto).

Autoria e outros dados (tags, etc)

por sitiocomvistasobreacidade às 17:55

Actualização das previsões (8)

Quarta-feira, 16.01.13

Mais tarde atualizo os quadros que publiquei em Novembro. Mais um buraco. O Banco de Portugal prevê agora uma recessão para este ano de -1,9% e para o ano um crescimento de  +1,3%. O Orçamento de 2013 baseou-se numa previsão de recessão de -1%. Qual será a explicação para mais este falhanço?

 Quadros publicados em Novembro:

 

Autoria e outros dados (tags, etc)

por sitiocomvistasobreacidade às 09:50

«Pensei no conflito de interesses, mas não me afligi muito»

Quarta-feira, 09.01.13

Acho que Lobo Xavier tem razão para não estar preocupado com o conflito de interesses. Afinal de contas, os interesses são os mesmos.

Vale a pena ouvir a crónica de Bruno Nogueira no Tubo de Ensaio http://www.tsf.pt/Programas/programa.aspx?content_id=904110&audio_id=2979187

Autoria e outros dados (tags, etc)

por sitiocomvistasobreacidade às 15:27

The Big fail

Segunda-feira, 07.01.13

The Big fail

Paul Krugman: 6 de Janeiro de 2013

 

It’s that time again: the annual meeting of the American Economic Association and affiliates, a sort of medieval fair that serves as a marketplace for bodies (newly minted Ph.D.’s in search of jobs), books and ideas. And this year, as in past meetings, there is one theme dominating discussion: the ongoing economic crisis.

This isn’t how things were supposed to be. If you had polled the economists attending this meeting three years ago, most of them would surely have predicted that by now we’d be talking about how the great slump ended, not why it still continues.

So what went wrong? The answer, mainly, is the triumph of bad ideas.

It’s tempting to argue that the economic failures of recent years prove that economists don’t have the answers. But the truth is actually worse: in reality, standard economics offered good answers, but political leaders — and all too many economists — chose to forget or ignore what they should have known.

The story, at this point, is fairly straightforward. The financial crisis led, through several channels, to a sharp fall in private spending: residential investment plunged as the housing bubble burst; consumers began saving more as the illusory wealth created by the bubble vanished, while the mortgage debt remained. And this fall in private spending led, inevitably, to a global recession.

For an economy is not like a household. A family can decide to spend less and try to earn more. But in the economy as a whole, spending and earning go together: my spending is your income; your spending is my income. If everyone tries to slash spending at the same time, incomes will fall — and unemployment will soar.

So what can be done? A smaller financial shock, like the dot-com bust at the end of the 1990s, can be met by cutting interest rates. But the crisis of 2008 was far bigger, and even cutting rates all the way to zero wasn’t nearly enough.

At that point governments needed to step in, spending to support their economies while the private sector regained its balance. And to some extent that did happen: revenue dropped sharply in the slump, but spending actually rose as programs like unemployment insurance expanded and temporary economic stimulus went into effect. Budget deficits rose, but this was actually a good thing, probably the most important reason we didn’t have a full replay of the Great Depression.

But it all went wrong in 2010. The crisis in Greece was taken, wrongly, as a sign that all governments had better slash spending and deficits right away. Austerity became the order of the day, and supposed experts who should have known better cheered the process on, while the warnings of some (but not enough) economists that austerity would derail recovery were ignored. For example, the president of the European Central Bank confidently asserted that “the idea that austerity measures could trigger stagnation is incorrect.”

Well, someone was incorrect, all right.

Of the papers presented at this meeting, probably the biggest flash came from one by Olivier Blanchard and Daniel Leigh of the International Monetary Fund. Formally, the paper represents the views only of the authors; but Mr. Blanchard, the I.M.F.’s chief economist, isn’t an ordinary researcher, and the paper has been widely taken as a sign that the fund has had a major rethinking of economic policy.

For what the paper concludes is not just that austerity has a depressing effect on weak economies, but that the adverse effect is much stronger than previously believed. The premature turn to austerity, it turns out, was a terrible mistake.

I’ve seen some reporting describing the paper as an admission from the I.M.F. that it doesn’t know what it’s doing. That misses the point; the fund was actually less enthusiastic about austerity than other major players. To the extent that it says it was wrong, it’s also saying that everyone else (except those skeptical economists) was even more wrong. And it deserves credit for being willing to rethink its position in the light of evidence.

The really bad news is how few other players are doing the same. European leaders, having created Depression-level suffering in debtor countries without restoring financial confidence, still insist that the answer is even more pain. The current British government, which killed a promising recovery by turning to austerity, completely refuses to consider the possibility that it made a mistake.

And here in America, Republicans insist that they’ll use a confrontation over the debt ceiling — a deeply illegitimate action in itself — to demand spending cuts that would drive us back into recession.

The truth is that we’ve just experienced a colossal failure of economic policy — and far too many of those responsible for that failure both retain power and refuse to learn from experience.

 

Extraodinário: os políticos europeus continuam a ouvir mais os conselhos dos Camilos Lourenços que pupulam nas TVs do que do Prémio Nobel Paul Krugman. Porque será?

Autoria e outros dados (tags, etc)

por sitiocomvistasobreacidade às 12:04





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